Ag economists told a U.S. House Ag Subcommittee last week that the war in Ukraine, trade wars, the pandemic, and disasters have all combined to upend calculations for the next farm bill. 

University of Illinois Ag Economist Joseph Janzen says commodity prices and input costs will depend largely on the war in Ukraine, but on other issues as well…

Especially since countercyclical Title I safety nets ARC and PLC don’t help much when commodity prices are high, leaving crop insurance and ad hoc disaster aid as critical backstops. Ranking Ag Republican Glenn ‘G.T.’ Thompson…

Texas A & M Food Policy Center Co-Director Joe Outlaw suggested higher reference prices and paying the higher of either ARC or PLC each year but also a pilot with crop-specific margin coverage…

Outlaw says prices, high even before the war in Ukraine, will come down, but farming costs will stay up for a while, so what worked in the 2018 Farm Bill may no longer work in the next one.