DETROIT (AP) — For years, Michigan Republicans had circled 2026 as their chance to regain power in the swing state where Democrats hold all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats. Now, doubts are creeping in.

Surging gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran and tariffs that have hit the state’s auto industry hard have all contributed to concerns about a worsening political environment for Michigan Republicans.

The latest warning sign came Tuesday, when a Democrat won a special election by almost 20 points in a state Senate district that Kamala Harris won by less than 1 point in 2024. The previous officeholder, a Democrat, carried the seat by 6 percentage points in 2022.

“To get to this margin in that kind of a district means that Democrats and independent voters are working in tandem to send a message to the Trump administration,” Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said of Tuesday’s result.

The sentiment could pose a challenge for Michigan Republicans in a midterm year when voters will decide the governor’s office, control of the Legislature and a premier U.S. Senate race. The mood of voters in Michigan also matters for a national Republican Party that sees the state — which Donald Trump flipped in 2024 — as central to its coalition and a midterm map that will again hinge heavily on the industrial Midwest.

Nationally, Trump’s approval rating on the economy fell between March and April as the Iran war sent prices higher, according to an AP-NORC poll. The April poll found that approval had eroded even among Republicans, with 62% having a positive view of the way Trump is handling the economy, down from 74% in March.

Trump’s economic approval remained low among independents, who have an outsized role in deciding elections in swing states like Michigan. About 2 in 10 independents approved of Trump’s performance on the economy in the April poll, down slightly from about 3 in 10 in March. Only about one-quarter of U.S. adults approved of his handling of the cost of living.

Michigan voters may be feeling the impacts more than those elsewhere in the U.S. Gas prices in Michigan are averaging around $4.80 per gallon, the 10th-highest in the nation, according to AAA, after they jumped by over 80 cents in a week.

Jared Kaufman, 26, is among those frustrated by rising costs and the war in Iran. He voted for Democrat Chedrick Green in Tuesday’s election, saying he’s a teacher who doesn’t make much money. The sacrifices being made “for something that is nowhere near us” are unnecessary, he said.

Tariffs have also created new anxiety in a state deeply tied to the auto industry and cross-border trade with Canada. While Trump has argued the tariffs will strengthen domestic manufacturing, suppliers and smaller manufacturers in Michigan say the uncertainty has made it harder to plan investments and expansion.

“The more stability there is in the environment, the easier it is for me to make decisions to grow and expand,” said John Lytle, president of Promess Inc., a manufacturer outside Detroit. “That’s probably been the biggest impact it’s had on us.”

Jason Roe, a strategist and former executive director of the Michigan GOP, conceded that the political environment isn’t good right now, but argued Democrats have their own problems and that Trump still has time to bring costs down.

“But if they don’t get Iran figured out pretty quick, we’re screwed,” he added.

The worsening political climate is also colliding with internal divisions at the top of the GOP ticket.

With Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer term-limited and leaving office at year’s end, the governor’s race was once viewed as Republicans’ best pickup opportunity. Michigan has a long history of electing a governor from the opposite party once an incumbent leaves office.

The overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary was Rep. John James, a veteran who represents a competitive House district and has been endorsed by Trump in previous elections, including two failed bids for U.S. Senate (Trump has not endorsed in this year’s GOP primary). But frustration with his campaign has steadily built within the party, spilling into public view in recent weeks.

After it was announced in April that James would miss a GOP debate in an important swing county where all other major candidates were attending, a wave of Republicans criticized him.

“The data is clear: if John James wins the Aug. 4, 2026, primary, Republicans will almost certainly lose the general election in November,” said Chris Long, a member of the Michigan GOP’s leadership team, in a social media post calling for James to drop out.

James has said that he will take part in two debates in July.

Democrats have their own concerns. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is expected to lead the Democratic field, though Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson is also running. Some in the party worry that Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat now running for governor as an independent, could pull votes from their nominee.

But James’ campaign has also been complicated by the late entry of Perry Johnson, a millionaire businessman who mounted long-shot bids for governor in 2022 and president in 2024. Johnson has aggressively attacked James — and has the money to sustain it, announcing a $10 million television ad buy in February.

Republican strategist Dennis Lennox criticized James as running “an awful campaign,” but added that no matter who is the nominee, it will be a tough cycle.

“Anyone who isn’t being paid to say otherwise will concede that 2026 is going to be a very difficult year for Republicans,” said Lennox.

In a statement, James spokesperson Hannah Osantowske dismissed the criticism as “sore losers griping,” arguing that James remains the GOP frontrunner and “the only Republican beating both Democrats in November.” She also dismissed Johnson’s campaign.

“Michiganders are not buying what he is selling,” Osantowske said. “They want a trusted Trump ally, combat veteran and proven job creator. That is John James.”

The governor’s race is top of the ticket in Michigan, but national Republicans are also looking to crush Democrats’ chances of winning control of the Senate by flipping Michigan’s open Senate seat.

Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers is running again on the GOP ticket, after losing in 2024 by less than 20,000 votes to freshman Sen. Elissa Slotkin.

Democrats are in the midst of a competitive — and increasingly messy — Senate primary with three high-profile candidates vying for the party’s nomination in the Aug. 4 primary.

Still, questions linger about whether Rogers can win a race he lost even with Trump on the ballot. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994.

Rogers maintains the most cash on hand of any Senate candidate, due to a non-competitive GOP primary, but was behind Democratic candidates Mallory McMorrow, a state senator, and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a former health official, in fundraising in the first quarter of 2026. The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC for Senate Republicans, announced an initial $45 million investment in the Michigan race early in April.

Czuba said the influx of outside money may not help Rogers if it further nationalizes the race.

“If the conversation is nationalized in Michigan, we see how poorly the president’s numbers look right now,” said Czuba. “If undecided voters disproportionately view Donald Trump negatively, I’m not sure what the path is for Mike Rogers.”

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Associated Press journalist Mike Householder in Bay City, Michigan, contributed to this report.